Gold Signal India

What will it really cost?

Change duty, GST, making charge and premium in Settings. A cut in import duty can lower Indian prices in one day, so check the current rate before a large purchase.

Backtest: would this call have helped?

Each month, every plan gets the same new money. The score is worked out using only prices known at that time. Money not yet spent earns the reserve interest. "Lean with the score" buys more when cheap and less when expensive, releases saved money in cooler months, and never holds more than 6 months of savings.

Uses month-end world prices in rupees. Leaves out GST, making charges, fund fees and tax. Past results do not tell you future results.

Your plan

Signal levels

Indian costs

Data

How it works

Prices

World price per gram = gold in USD per troy ounce x USD to INR / 31.1035. India estimate = world price x (1 + import duty) x (1 + local premium). 22K = 24K x 22 / 24. GST and making charges are added only in the Buy cost tab.

Heat score

Built from month-end rupee prices since 2000, so it works from the first day. Five parts, each compared with the last 120 months:

• Stretch above the 10-month average (about 200 trading days): 30%
• Stretch above the 36-month average: 20%
• 3-month price change: 20%
• Distance below the 12-month high (a 25% drop scores 0): 15%
• 14-day RSI from prices saved on this device, once 15 days are saved: 15%. Until then the other weights are scaled up.

What the score is for

The score tells you how warm prices are. It is not a timing signal. We tested it on real monthly prices from 1999 to 2026 (world gold price converted at the monthly USD to INR rate):

• After "expensive" or "very stretched" months, the next 12 months gained about 22% on average. After "cheap" months they gained about 12%, and lost money 37% of the time. High readings mostly meant a strong trend, not a coming fall.
• Steady monthly buying beat every timing rule we tried: buying more when cheap, less when expensive, or waiting for cheap. Waiting for cheap did worst.
• For a one-time sum, putting it in at once beat splitting it over 6 months on average. Splitting only made the worst cases a little less bad.

So the app keeps your monthly amount steady and uses the score for two things: a calmer plan for large one-time purchases, and a warning against chasing hot prices with a big lump sum. These tests use overlapping periods and one asset's history, so treat them as a guide, not proof.

Where you can really save

Making charges (often 8% to 25%), GST and the buy-sell gap on jewellery cost far more than any timing gain. If the aim is saving, Gold ETFs or gold funds avoid GST and making charges. See the Buy cost tab.

Limits

• The score does not know the future. Gold can stay "expensive" for years in a strong trend, and keep falling after it looks cheap.
• The USD to INR rate is a once-a-day reference, not the bank rate used in bullion pricing.
• Long history before 2025 uses monthly averages, so it is good for judging how stretched the price is, not for exact past prices.
• No news, sentiment, interest-rate or fund-flow data is used.
• Not investment advice. For personal advice, speak to a SEBI-registered adviser.